Feb 21 2018 0

Seven trends that will mark the fuels in 2018

Those who work in the sector of combustibles always says that it is very difficult to make predictions, but there are market features that allow careful readings of the immediate future. The express contacted some specialists and presents trends for 2018.

1. Price of us $60 a barrel.

The price per barrel increased by more than 10% since November 30 and earlier this year came to exceed 70 dollars. But for the Secretary General of the Portuguese Association of oil companies (APETRO), António, the trend is that the price will remain on average 60 us dollars a barrel, because "there are no surpluses that existed last year, leading to a cut of production ". However, "there will always be geopolitical constraints and issues in the Middle East" and even the normal volatility of the exchange rate of the euro to the dollar that may influence the price of the overnight. But "we're not going to see prices of 100 or 150 dollars per barrel, as in 2012, not 20 or 30 dollars prices, like in 2015". And explains: "the oil is still the only source of revenue for many countries and the social cost that he has is very important. There are cases where $20 pay the cost of production, but then sold the $40 because the difference is income for the economy. "

2. Stable prices of fuels.

If oil prices have risen in recent months of 2017 it is inevitable that have also increased fuel prices. "About 20% in three months," noticed Gustavo Paulo Duarte, the President of the National Association of Freight Transport (ANTRAM), one of the sectors where the fuels have more weight (31% of transactions).
But if no further increases are expected in the short term nor major fluctuations in the prices of a barrel of oil during this year, the same is true in the retail prices of various types of fuel. In other words, the expectation is that the normal up and down a few cents per litre.

3. More tax revenue.

In 2016, the tax on petroleum products (ISP) was the most weighed on General State revenue growth with taxes and, in 2017, there was a further increase of 3.2% to a total of 3,364,400,000 euros. This growth is explained with the tax increase and the consumption of fuels and not so much the prices, because these were lower, at least until November, Antonio Long note. For this year, although the ISP back up and taxes are a growing slice of the final price you pay per litre of fuel, consumption is expected to continue to grow, so should revenues increase. "Who did the increase in ISP little knows the impact that this has. You're thinking only on prescription. The tax and the price of fuel should be adjusted to the reality of the country. For example, in Portugal, a driver earns three or four times less than a German driver ", comments Gustavo Paulo Duarte. In addition, adds Antonio Long VAT revenue also goes up because it is a tax on consumption. Going on more consumption, the revenue received by the State are higher than those of the previous year.

4. consumption to rise.

For António what else influences Long consumption of fuels is the State of the economy and not high or low prices. For example, freight companies have to supply the cars, regardless of the price of fuel. In other words, even the prices are now higher than they were until November, fuel consumption will continue to rise in 2018, since the economy has been showing signs of growth. And this is valid both for individuals as for professionals. "We had more work, but we are not yet in the pre-crisis values," says Gustavo Paulo Duarte.

5. more efficient Cars.

The increase in consumption may be affected by the car park, which is increasingly new and efficient and spend less. "Have increased the sales of new cars and, for example, a truck that makes much difference. A new truck spend 10 or 20% less than a 10-year-old ", see Anthony long. In addition, consumption growth that is said to have been verified in 2017 can be misrepresented because of the creation of the system of professional diesel, which returns the value of the taxes on diesel freight carriers with trucks with more than 35 tonnes and as well, avoid going to Spain. "I don't know if the increase was due to the improved economy went less to Spain. My company was using 1 million litres in Spain and in Portugal, 400,000 in 2017 was exactly the opposite, "says Gustavo Paulo Duarte.

6. professional Diesel stabilizes.

And speaking of professional diesel, according to Antonio Long there should be many more accessions to this scheme in 2018. "Most companies that wanted to do, I did," comments. According to government data revealed in September last year, in the first half of 2017, have joined the scheme, companies that made 1955 more than 4.7 million and 7.7 million euros through the recovered reimbursement. According to the Secretary General of the APETRO, the only way to be more accessions was extending the scheme to smaller cars, for example, that make the distribution of a supermarket, and not only to trucks. This is, in fact, a claim of ANTRAM, which says that the only way the State would be truly helping the sector and not just looking for more revenue from taxes levied on petroleum products ". Antonio Long goes further in saying that the State will extend the scheme, it was thus giving a direct rebate to small carriers that already supply and pay taxes here.

7. simple preferred Fuel.

A study conducted by the new IMS in April 2017 and released by BP revealed that 51% of the Portuguese prefer to stock up on posts, but according to António Long it doesn't mean you will opt for the fuel additive. In fact, the Secretary General of the APETRO note that the official data of the national entity for the market of fuels (ENMC) show that the single fuels have 63% market share while the additives have 37%. "The brands continue to sell more because they have more posts and are well located. Although there has been a recovery of additives, this was very slight. The price counts for a lot in this case, but also the loyalty to brands. People don't change this kind of habits that fast, "remate António.

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